what is striking in the exit polls is the polarization on three lines: gender, race and age. It was dead even with men; but a massive advantage for Clinton among women. The racial difference is obvious as well. But what really leaps out is age. Obama lost every cohort over 40; Clinton lost every cohort under 40. Race also affects the generations in turn: 67 percent of whites over 60 voted for Clinton - a massive 24 point advantage. Among the younger generation, there is much less racial polarization: under 30, whites split evenly. This is a fascinating result. It appears to me as the future struggling to overcome the past… But here’s what she does have: total shamelessness, and an absolute belief that she is the rightful nominee… What sustains her is this deep, deep sense of entitlement and an absolute refusal to let the next generation take over. She will take this to the last day of the convention if necessary. If Obama thinks he has a right to actually be nominated by the Clinton Democrats because he has won more votes, more states and more delegates, he is sadly mistaken. They will never let such a person win without a death struggle. And that is where the Democrats are now headed.

Andrew Sullivan may be exaggerating Hillary’s malevolent mania a smidge, but perhaps not by much. But the generational point is the really interesting one. Of course, inspirational-left candidates always appeal heavily to the young - look at Robert Kennedy. But I sense this is different. After all, the cutoff is supposed to be 30, not 40. While the baby boomers got conservative as they got older and settled down, it’s just possible that generation X and the millennials*, with our never-ending adolescence and our upbringing free from the trauma of Vietnam and stagflation, might not. Or at least, not till much later in life. What does this mean? Well, it means that whatever happens in November, the long-term future looks good for the democrats. While the swollen ranks of aged boomers begin to die off, the most liberal generation in American history will be becoming hugely influential. But this is a long-term play. For now, I’d love to see polling with this level of age detail for Obama v McCain. If Obama v Hillary feels like “the future struggling to overcome the past,” what will that feel like?

* Yes, I know. But “millennials” is - just - better than “generation Y”, which makes us sound like some sort of more masculine version of our Star Wars-obsessed older brothers. I say “us” because the dividing line is, apparently, 1980, putting me just on the right side of history. UPDATE 14/05/08: This is an altogether depressing explanation of our defining characteristics as a generation. Apparently we’re not all being schooled all over the world and redefining work-life balance. We’re fat, poor, and tired.

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You go into some of these small towns in Pennsylvania, and like a lot of small towns in the Midwest, the jobs have been gone now for 25 years and nothing’s replaced them. And they fell through the Clinton administration, and the Bush administration, and each successive administration has said that somehow these communities are gonna regenerate and they have not. And it’s not surprising then they get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren’t like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations.

Now look. Come on. This is not an insult. This is not a Kerry-style gaffe. And it’s not going to hurt Obama against anyone except, feasibly, small-business owners, who lean Republican anyway. This is the truth. And its harshness is softened by its genuine sympathy for working-class people.

Kerry’s remarks about getting “stuck in Iraq” were harmful because they backed up what people already suspected: that Kerry, while genuinely sympathising with poor people, didn’t know them, didn’t understand them, and deep down, didn’t like ‘em. Barack Obama is not John Kerry. Barack Obama is not an elitist. He grew up in Chicago, not Beacon Hill, Boston.

Top of the Ticket : Los Angeles Times : Barack Obama’s “small town” critique: Is this a game changer?

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