Rav Casley Gera

I don’t remember many people singing “God Save the Queen” in May 1997.

Just watched McCain conference speech again. It’s good, but the crowd aren’t listening to the best bits. The first time he tries to talk seriously about the economic crisis, he’s drowned out by chants of “USA! USA! USA!” But then he goes on to talk about cutting taxes, and the crowd goes insane. Which, quite possibly, sums up the whole reason the McCain campaign failed.

Andrew Sullivan has a plethora of reaction from across the ’sphere, with a conservative leaning. These two really sum it up:

The analytical quote:

1. The modern conservative movement began with the crushing defeat of Arizona Sen. Barry Goldwater in the 1964 presidential race. The modern conservative movement ends with the crushing defeat of Arizona Sen. John McCain — who took Goldwater’s Senate seat upon his retirement — in the 2008 presidential race.

2. Modern liberalism began its implosion with riots in Chicago’s Grant Park at the 1968 Democratic Convention. Tonight, modern liberalism is reborn at Chicago’s Grant Park, where a black Chicago Democrat will celebrate winning the presidency.

- Rod Dreher

The personal quote:

Nothing in my life has actually changed in the 30 minutes since it was announced Obama will be our next president. I have the same bills, the same amount of money in the bank, my dishwasher is still broken, and my 5 month old beagle won’t stop peeing on my carpet. Everything in my life is exactly the same as it was 30 minutes ago; and yet I feel as though everything is different.

I feel so much hope.  I feel so much pride. I feel like my one vote was a single drop of water in a great Tsunami of change. I feel like I was one of a million voices screaming in the night, ” I love my country and I’m taking it back!” I’m so proud of the country that I love and have so much hope in my heart that we can together heal the wounds that have been such a source of pain and anger to us all.

I know Obama isn’t going to fix the economy overnight, I know he won’t be able to provide healthcare to all Americans by February ‘09. I know Obama isn’t a Messiah who four years from now will have turned this country into a fabled utopia. But I also know Obama will make moral decisions. I know Obama will try to unite where others try to divide. I know Obama will help to make America the beacon of hope it once was to others. I know that at 27 years of age, I witnessed one of the most important and hopefully glorious chapters in American history.

I know hope.

- Anonymous Daily Dish reader

What with all the fuss about the election for the office of what law blogs call POTUS, it’s easy to forget that today is also the day, not only of hundreds of US Senate and House of Representative races, but thousands more elections to state legislatures and of hundreds of elected judges, sheriffs and city commissioners across America. The world’s largest developed country really is an experiment in local democracy.

And, of course, there are hundreds of state and city referenda on particular issues. These vary from the vastly important to the - well, less so. This list of LA Times endorsements gives you the idea. You probably know about Proposition 8, the measure to amend California’s constitution to ban gay marriage (LA Times says: “No”). But what about Prop 5, introducing new drug rehabilitation agencies (LA Times: also “no”)? Or Prop 2, on the size of battery-hen cages (also, interestingly, “no”)?

The Guardian sums up some of the other, wackier, ballots out there. As well as waking up tomorrow in a world with a black US President-elect, we may be in a world where Colorado’s state constitution defines life as beginning at birth. I look forward to reading the coroner’s reports on the thousands of miscarriages that must take place in Colorado every year…

Dear God, it’s finally here.

It’s worth recalling just how absurdly action-packed this two-year campaign has been. The First Lady Candidate vs the ambitious young black senator. The earliest-ever primaries. The shock in Iowa, Hillary’s tears. The Michigan-Florida farrago, which saw the term “Democratic Rules Committee” enter water-cooler vocabulary. John McCain’s campaign out of money, written off, and then reborn in New Hampshire. Guliani’s Florida gamble. Rev. Wright and “A More Perfect Union”. Bill Clinton’s “fairytale”. “Clean and articulate”. The pit bull, Katie Couric, Tina Fey and Joe the Plumber (say it ain’t so, Joe!). The dramatic Powell endorsement. Then - just as it all seems to be over - Obama’s grandmother dies the day before the election. You couldn’t make it up.

I’m 28, British, and have only been watching elections closely since the Bush era began. But surely this has been the most dramatic campaign since 1968. I wonder if anything - short of, God forbid, an inaugural assassination - can bring it to a suitably compelling climax.

But the next 24 hours should be pretty damn good.

Essential resources (besides the obvious):

• Twitter’s election portal offers stream-of-conscious commentary from its (Obama-centric) young user base
• Twitter accounts @866OURVOTE and @electionjournal have live reports of voting problems and fraud, while Twitter Vote Report offers voting reports from across the country (on a map!)

I’ll be twittering non-stop once the results start coming in. Happy voting, America!

This starts well:

The election’s over.

Sure, the votes still need to be counted.

And yes, things could radically change over the next two weeks.

But let’s be realistic: Republicans are in a bad spot.

And it’s never too early to start planning for 2012…

So far, so sane. Just the kind of thing the soul-searching the GOP needs to do.

…and a ticket that actually inspires the conservative base.

Uh-oh.

And that ticket is Sarah Palin and Joe the Plumber.

Pfffbwahahahaah!

Sure, laugh now. But the main reason the Republican base hasn’t completely ditched McCain is because of Palin and her Jane C-Cup appeal.

Joe the Plumber, meanwhile, has about as much political experience as Palin did four years ago and has immense Joe Six-Pack appeal.

For God’s sake– his name’s Joe! It works perfectly!

It goes on. Once the election’s out of the way, this is going to be one highly entertaining GOP civil war.

Pundits are calling it for Obama, and in response, McCain has gone on the attack. The next four weeks are likely to get heated and nasty as the candidates sling all the mud they’ve been hoarding while talking about upending politics as usual (Obama’s sudden willingness to dredge up the 20-year old Keating Five scandal suggests he’s going to go on the offensive himself).

It’s a natural instinct for Obama supporters to leap to his defence in the face of every attack by conservatives. And there is a lot of crap being thrown around. But as polling day looms, it’s worth remembering that there are some real problems with Obama and his candidacy. Whether any of them is a dealbreaker, I’ll leave up to you. [Read more →]

First John Snow called it. And now this:

Perpetually fretting Democrats will not want to accept it. The campaigns themselves can’t afford to believe it. Many journalists know it but can’t say it. And there will certainly be some twists and turns along the way. But take it to a well capitalized bank: Bill Ayers isn’t going to save John McCain.  The race is over.

John McCain’s candidacy is as much a casualty of Wall Street as Lehman or Merrill… Before Wall Street’s collapse Senator McCain was ahead. His approval ratings remained high, his VP pick had generated excitement and interest, and his campaign operatives were capable, on any given day, of winning news cycles and giving their opponents fits. And then the underpinnings of American capitalism begin to sink — and with them sunk McCain.

An election dominated at its inception by the war in Iraq is now overwhelmingly focused on the economy. More than half of voters in polls say that the economy is their top concern and Senator Obama enjoys double digit leads among voters asked who can better fix our economic mess. Put simply, there is no way Senator McCain can win if he continues to trail Senator Obama by double digits on the top concern of more than half of voters.

Howard Wolfson, “It’s Over: Why Bill Ayers Won’t Save John McCain“

What could turn things round? Wolfson points to a domestic terror attack as the only thing that could seriously shake things up now. I think the “Bradley effect” is likely to mean Obama’s vote will be smaller on the day than the polls suggest now, potentially making things very tight. And the danger is that overconfident Obama supporters will stay at home. The democrats have to warn against complacency and focus all their efforts on getting out the vote.

Still, it’s true: a McCain victory now would be a stunning turnaround.

Track the latest odds on the race

Biden wasn’t as loveable as Palin, but he didn’t need to be; Palin wasn’t as competent as Biden, but she didn’t have to be.

"Hey, can I call ya Joe?"

Who won Thursday’s vice-presidential debate? It depends on who you ask. The initial poll, from CNN’s panel of undecided Ohio voters, saw the Democrat Sen. Joe Biden rated as the winner 51-36. But conservatives have been crowing all weekend about the performance of Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska. “She was polished, direct, folksy and on message,” said one Republican strategist. Right-wing blogger Michelle Malkin put it more succinctly with a post titled simply, “Sarah Rocks!”

“I would like to see all the Sarah doubters and detractors in the Beltway/Manhattan corridor eat their words,” Malkin wrote. “Sarah Palin is the real deal. Five weeks on the campaign trail, thrust onto the national stage, she rocked tonight’s debate.”

Certainly, Palin’s confidence took the audience by surprise. The internet messaging service Twitter offers a live stream of users’ election-related updates. Before the debate, it was, well, a-twitter with messages gleefully anticipating the meltdown of Palin in the face of Joe Biden’s experience and grasp of the issues. As the debate wore on, they grew increasingly quiet, to be replaced by crowing republicans exulting at Palin’s performance.

So who won? Perhaps the real question is: what does it mean to ‘win’ an electoral debate? [Read more →]

Hello Philly,

I am glad to be here today for this voter registration drive and for Barack Obama, the next president of the United States.

I’ve spent 35 years writing about America, its people, and the meaning of the American Promise. The Promise that was handed down to us, right here in this city from our founding fathers, with one instruction: Do your best to make these things real: opportunity, equality, social and economic justice, a fair shake for all of our citizens, the American idea, as a positive influence, around the world for a more just and peaceful existence. These are the things that give our lives hope, shape, and meaning. They are the ties that bind us together and give us faith in our contract with one another.

I’ve spent most of my creative life measuring the distance between that American promise and American reality. For many Americans, who are today losing their jobs, their homes, seeing their retirement funds disappear, who have no healthcare, or who have been abandoned in our inner cities, the distance between that promise and that reality has never been greater or more painful.

I believe Senator Obama has taken the measure of that distance in his own life and in his work. I believe he understands, in his heart, the cost of that distance, in blood and suffering, in the lives of everyday Americans. I believe as president, he would work to restore that promise to so many of our fellow citizens who have justifiably lost faith in its meaning. After the disastrous administration of the past 8 years, we need someone to lead us in an American reclamation project. In my job, I travel the world, and occasionally play big stadiums, just like Senator Obama. I’ve continued to find, wherever I go, America remains a repository of people’s hopes, possibilities, and desires, and that despite the terrible erosion to our standing around the world, accomplished by our recent administration, we remain, for many, a house of dreams. One thousand George Bushes and one thousand Dick Cheneys will never be able to tear that house down.

They will, however, be leaving office, dropping the national tragedies of Katrina, Iraq, and our financial crisis in our laps. Our sacred house of dreams has been abused, looted, and left in a terrible state of disrepair. It needs care; it needs saving, it needs defending against those who would sell it down the river for power or a quick buck. It needs strong arms, hearts, and minds. It needs someone with Senator Obama’s understanding, temperateness, deliberativeness, maturity, compassion, toughness, and faith, to help us rebuild our house once again. But most importantly, it needs us. You and me. To build that house with the generosity that is at the heart of the American spirit. A house that is truer and big enough to contain the hopes and dreams of all of our fellow citizens. That is where our future lies. We will rise or fall as a people by our ability to accomplish this task. Now I don’t know about you, but I want that dream back, I want my America back, I want my country back.

So now is the time to stand with Barack Obama and Joe Biden, roll up our sleeves, and come on up for the rising.

Bruce Springsteen, Vote For Change rally, Philadelphia, October 4

Think of any sci-fi film you’ve ever seen with a scene where a character uses the TVs of the future. There’s always about seven mini-screens, isn’t there? Ever since the introduction of computers with multiple applications in moveable window, split-screen has been used as lazy shorthand for an information-overloaded future. It’s a lesson CNN have learned well. Its daily politics show, the absurdly-named Situation Room - hosted by the equally surreally-named Wolf Blitzer - is like a transmission from the starship Enterprise, with a vast screen showing footage from the day’s press conferences and campaign stops, along with a bizarre array of polling data and micro-analysis.

Of course, amidst the noise, all actual thought is in danger of being drowned out. [Read more →]

A small boy asleep on his right side, the right arm stuck out, the right hand hanging limp over the edge of the bed. Through a round grating in the side of a box a voice speaks softly.

“The Nile is the longest river in Africa and the second in length of all the rivers of the globe. Although falling short of the length of the Mississippi-Missouri, the Nile is at the head of all rivers as regards the length of its basin, which extends through 35 degrees of latitude …”

At breakfast the next morning, “Tommy,” some one says, “do you know which is the longest river in Africa?” A shaking of the head. “But don’t you remember something that begins: The Nile is the …”

“The - Nile - is - the - longest - river - in - Africa - and - the - second - in - length - of - all - the - rivers - of - the - globe …” The words come rushing out. “Although - falling - short - of …”

“Well now, which is the longest river in Africa?”

The eyes are blank. “I don’t know.”

“But the Nile, Tommy.”

“The - Nile - is - the - longest - river - in - Africa - and - second …”

“Then which river is the longest, Tommy?”

Tommy burst into tears. “I don’t know,” he howls.

-Aldous Huxley, Brave New World

Twitter’s scarily addictive election portal has inspired a handful of pleasingly bonkers right-wingers with time on their hands to sign up purely to respond to the stream of Obama-love (and Palin-hate) that it offers with a remarkable array of illogic, cant and irrelevancy. Here are some of my favourites, but you need to see the Twitter feeds themselves (follow the links) for the sheer quantity and madness of it…

Obamalies offers:

RTW Obama, what people are not allowed to know!!! http://tinyurl.com/3g57fb << The Truth Finally Comes Out - Video Proof! OMG!!!!!!!!!

(The link leads to an old video of cobbled-together coincidences, fury over Jeremiah Wright, and insinuations about Obama’s middle name)

If Biden isn’t drunk tonight I will be shocked! http://twurl.nl/3b2xd0 enjoy! pass it on!! LOL

(This one’s a possible gaffe by Joe Biden about the 1929 stock market crash, with no apparent slurring of speech)

@ursulas looks like your avatar is praying….you are going to need more than an avatar praying for you if you support abortionists

Katie Couric is a skidmark on the panties of CBS. She will be gone before her contract ends. Spineless Liberals can wait

Sarah4Prez, though slightly saner, has a lawyers’ knack for getting it technically right, but meaningfully so, so wrong:

Palin is the only candidate that has run anything larger than a debating society

We still have not seen Obama’s “original” birth certificate.

I wonder if Obama always threw is cigarette butts into a proper receptacle instead of on the ground as most liberal “green” smokers do.

If you examine his family tree, you will see he isn’t African American, though he has never mentioned this…more like Arab-American

“Obama Socialist” returns 3.2 million Google hits. Link #2 is Hillary saying he is.

Palin can’t remember a magazine, but at least she can read. The liberal run school system has a 50% dropout rate in many cities. Dems fault.

Save the Polar Bear, don’t kill terrorists, but go ahead and kill babies still breathing amniotic fluid….

etc etc

How is it possible to go in one month from this:

To this?

This woman - clearly not entirely stupid - has been destroyed, flattened by a crushing collapse in confidence. This insightful post argues that the McCain campaign’s determination to keep her away from the media has done more harm than good.

She has six days to bounce back and, frankly, I don’t see how she can. All the evidence suggests that those who said after the convention that a winning speech to a friendly crowd does not a capable politican make were dead right.

The video below is part of a swath of evidence suggesting that I was wrong last night - that the debate did far more for Obama than for McCain. But the really interesting bit comes at around the 2-minute mark, which overlays key moments with tracks of people’s live impressions. See how much Obama’s score ticks up when he attacks McCain over Iraq:

The lesson? The surge has not, as expected, neutralised Obama’s gains on having opposed the war. He can keep using having opposed the war, in mainstream arenas, and score real points on judgment. This is big news.

Vintage political Americana with a handsome blond host. What’s! Not! To! Like!

I’ve come to the conclusion the ‘culture wars’ aren’t really about class resentment. People will elect and adore a toff if they think he’ll listen to them. The trick is to do just that - to listen. Not to pander, not to switch positions, not even to try to be like them - but to listen. And trust ‘em with the truth. Say, I know we disagree on gay marriage/abortion/lipstick/whatever, but we agree on the things that are most important right now, and I’m asking for your trust and help in turning them round. Obama’s stadium speech did that. He needs to do it more.

The truth is, it’s not ridiculous to prefer a less capable candidate who you feel gets you, to a more capable one you fear doesn’t. For people who don’t have time to read up on every candidate’s economic plan, or discuss in detail the success or otherwise of the surge, a candidate’s character has to matter. Obama has to swing it back to policy, because he won’t win on character. But he also has to acknowledge that people’s concerns about character are natural and legitimate, and pass a kind of minimum standard of honesty and humility, before policies can become the focus.

The ever-dependable Andrew Sullivan is surely right when he says the new Obama ad (he embeds it; I can’t for some reason) is unwise in focusing on McCain’s being “out of touch”. What’s more, it does it badly: McCain can’t use a computer? All that suggests is that Obama hates old people.

This is the first time I’ve realised just how dangerous going negative could be for Obama. Thanks to - conspiracy alert - McCain-Feingold, this and all other Obama ads have to have his specific approval message on. There’s no way to run a Biden-fronted anti-McCain TV campaign that Obama can distance himself from. So every attack has to be balanced against the risk of losing the sheen of bipartisanship that has made Obama attractive so far - especially risky given that McCain has now set out so hard for that same ground.

Obama has to stick to the same strategy he pursued with his convention speech - stay broadly positive and put some meat on the bones. We need details, and more details. That promise of tax cuts for 95% of Americans needs to be repeated, and trumpeted, and sung from the hills till everyone is sick of it. Those details - those specific promises - are the only thing that can keep this campaign from sliding right into a 2004-style gutter of character assasination. And if it comes down to character, Obama will lose. Sorry, he will. If Americans go into that booth and choose the person who, deep down, they just feel they trust more, like more, or would rather have a beer with - it will be McCain who comes out on top. War hero trumps inspiring black guy. It just does.

It’s ironic, given the characterisation of Obama’s victory over Clinton as being one of style over substance, that policy - and particularly economic policy - is actually Obama’s big advantage. He’s not playing it enough.

UPDATE: Andrea Tantaros agrees with me, sort of

UPDATE 2: Sullivan puts it more succinctly:

Obama must maintain the high road. He must keep insisting that the McCain-Palin camp has no new policies to offer on the most critical issues we face, especially in foreign policy. And he must carefully and relentlessly explain what he intends to do. If he does that and refuses to take the bait, he will win. If he descends into the foul sewer where McCain now resides, he will lose.

Karl McCain knows one thing: how to smear, lie, disorient, distract, and intimidate. You can’t beat these thugs and liars at their own game. Beat them at the task of government. They are unfit for it. Obama is not.

UPDATE 3: Joe Biden kind of gets it (he also follow’s Sullivan’s earlier advice to ignore Palin). But will Obama follow this line?

In 2005, before Palin ran for office, she and her husband, Todd, claimed the trooper, Mike Wooten, threatened to kill Sarah Palin’s father. Wooten was suspended over the allegations for five days in 2006 but still has his job. The Palin family also accused Wooten of drinking beer in his patrol car, illegally shooting a moose and firing a Taser at his 11-year-old stepson.

Palin’s Lawyer Has Already Questioned Two Witnesses - law.com

What? They accused him of shooting a moose?

The increasingly likely vice-president of the United States appears to have the life of a minor character in a Coen Brothers movie.

HUMAN EVENTS gives voice to the great conservative thinkers of our era, including Ann Coulter… David Limbaugh [Rush's little brother!], Oliver North, Pat Buchanan, and many more.

Oo, I’m just itching, aren’t you?